Moving past predictions and towards robustness

Our climate future, much like our economic future, is very uncertain. This is something that we can all agree on, even the skeptics. Climate models typically input the entire globe, where interactions and feed backs are so complex that we can never promise any future condition with confidence. What is well known is the tendency of our climate system to be variable and change over time, even without increasing ambient temperatures. This is why experts are now suggesting that we move past arguing about scenarios and predictions and move toward preparing for variability and extremes (Hallegatte, 2009). Instead of planning around a given climate scenario, we should plan robustly for resiliency. Continue reading